Terms+of+Reference

=Terms of Reference: =

**An Analysis of Chinese Petroleum, Natural Gas and Mineral Mining Investments in Africa **
**For: ** **Claire Nobles, Sr. Analyst ** **David Cox, Ph D., Project Scientist ** **Kristin Anderson, Government Lead for Outreach ** **Ann Freelander, Technical PI ** **By: ** **NGA Africa Strategic Team ** **Mercyhurst University ** **September 25, 2013 **

Where have Chinese investments in petroleum, natural gas, and strategic minerals (PNGSM) in Sub-Saharan Africa occurred and where will they likely occur in the next five years? Do these projects coincide with China’s stated intentions? Also, what corresponding Chinese infrastructure projects have taken place alongside these PNGSM investments? Specifically, and in priority order:
 * Requirement: **

1. Are the corresponding infrastructure projects used to pursue further Chinese investments in PNGSM? 2. In what key aspects (demographics, economics, politics, technology, and geography) are country stability affected by those corresponding Chinese infrastructure projects?

To successfully fulfill the requirements listed above our team will consider, but will not limit ourselves to, implementing the following methodologies:
 * Methodology: **
 * Analysis of Competing Hypothesis: This methodology could potentially be useful assessing different Chinese PNGSM investments.
 * Geographical Analysis: Utilizing all available online mapping resources could possibly help identify key Chinese PNGSM investment nodes and processes.
 * Link Analysis: Using i2 Analyst’s Notebook could potentially be useful identifying the nodes and patterns of Chinese PNGSM investments.
 * Multi-criteria Intelligence Matrices: This methodology could identify multiple conflicting criteria that could affect likely courses of action for future Chinese PNGSM investment decisions.
 * Event-Timeline Analysis: Analyzing Chinese PNGSM companies past actions could likely indicate future Chinese investments.
 * Cultural and Demographic Analysis: This could help identifying possible valuable unique characteristics that attribute to the Chinese infrastructure benefits.


 * **Notional Timeline ** ||
 * **<span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Week ** ||  **<span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Area(s) of Focus **  ||
 * 15-28 Sept 2013 ||  Chinese petroleum investments  ||
 * 29 Sept - 12 Oct 2013 ||  Chinese natural gas investments  ||
 * 13-26 Oct 2013 ||  Chinese mineral mining investments  ||
 * 27 Oct – 2 Nov 2013 ||  Other Chinese investments and projects  ||
 * 3-10 Nov 2013 ||  Other Chinese investments and projects affecting stability  ||
 * 11-15 Nov 2013 ||  Deliver finished product to NGA  ||


 * <span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Challenges: **


 * //Time// – The 10 weeks allowed for this project limits the amount of research and analysis conducted.
 * //Money// – There is limited access to funding for the research.
 * //Language Barrier// – The analysts will be limited in translated materials from Africa.
 * //OSINT// – The research will be limited to strictly open source information.
 * //Information availability// – A lack of transparency in the region will limit the research.
 * //Subject matter expertise// – The analysts are generally unfamiliar with Sub-Saharan Africa.


 * <span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Resources: **


 * //Personnel –// All team members are experienced in research methodologies and analytic techniques and tools.
 * //Institutional –// The Institute for Intelligence Studies at Mercyhurst University and the Mercyhurst University Hammermill Library will provide the team members access to multiple diverse databases.
 * //Open Sources –// All team members will have access to open source databases such as Lexis-Nexis and Janes.
 * //Money –// The team may have access to a limited amount of financial resources to be used for research, modeling and analytic purposes.


 * <span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Administration: **


 * The intelligence product will be completed and delivered to the NGA between 11-16 November 2013.
 * The intelligence products will include a written document in PDF format, a Wiki site, and a formal briefing.
 * Team Contact: David Bott – dbott27@lakers.mercyhurst.edu

<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 10pt;"> As defined by the US House Committee on Natural Resources, the National Strategic and Critical Minerals Policy Act of 2013, strategic and critical minerals means minerals that are necessary for the national defense and national security requirements; for the Nation’s energy infrastructure, including pipelines, refining capacity, electrical power generation and transmission, and renewable energy production; to support domestic manufacturing, agriculture, housing, telecommunications, healthcare, and transportation infrastructure; and for the Nation’s economic security and balance of trade. <span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; font-size: 10pt;"> For the purposes of this project, Sub-Saharan Africa will be defined as the following states: Angola, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mozambique, The Gambia, Uganda, Benin, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Cote D’Ivoire, Dem. Rep. of the Congo, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Gabon, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rep. of the Congo, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Zambia, Zimbabwe