Regional+Key+Findings

=**Overall Key Findings:**=

**David:**

 * Petroleum:**
 * It is highly likely China will continue investing in the Horn of Africa for petroleum for the next five years.** Petroleum is the main reason China is interested in the Horn. Recent discoveries in Uganda and Kenya created the need for foreign investment to develop the oil fields. CNOOC is developing Kingfisher oil field in Lake Alberta in Uganda for USD 2 billion, and ICBC is providing USD 80 million of the funding for a Kenyan oil plant 25 kilometers from Nairobi. Uganda and Kenya are eager to receive investments from China as more investments become available from its discovered oil reserves.

The Sudan and South Sudan conflict caused China to broker an agreement between the two countries to keep the oil flowing, showing that **China will likely continue to invest in Sudan's and South Sudan's oil for the next five years if the situation is resolved peacefully**. South Sudan is currently in the process of building two pipelines to avoid Sudan altogether. Neither of South Sudan's two pipeline projects have current Chinese investments, but chances are about even China will invest in the USD 600 million oil refinery being planned at the end of the South Sudan-Djibouti pipeline. CNPC funded South Sudan's oil flow through Sudan until Sudan shut off the pipelines in June 2013.


 * Chances are about even for China to invest in the rest of the Horn of Africa**; currently no worthwhile reserves exist in the rest of the Horn, however every country is open to foreign investment and exploring for oil because of the recent finds in Uganda and Kenya. If more oil is discovered it is highly likely China will invest.


 * Natural Gas:**
 * China is highly likely to invest in natural gas projects over the next five years because of the high probability of natural gas discoveries in the Horn.** Along with the Horn's recent oil discoveries, associated natural gas has also been discovered. CNOOC's investment in Uganda's Kingfisher field will likely yield large amounts of natural gas, as well as Kenya's discovered oil field. All of the other countries in the Horn are exploring for natural gas because of the recent discoveries. Kenya's planned 700-800MW power plant to be located on a 300 acre parcel of land at Dongo Kund, Djibouti's USD 2.6 billion liquefied natural gas terminal, including a liquefaction plant and a pipeline, will enable the export of 10 million cubic meters of gas from Ethiopia to China annually from 2016, and Somalia's offshore exploration projects are huge projects that will likely attract Chinese investors.


 * Mineral Mining:**
 * In the next five years it is likely China will continue to invest the Horn of Africa's strategic minerals, especially copper, iron ore, gold, and coal.** Although oil and gas has taken up most of the spotlight in the Horn, many strategic minerals are available in the Horn that the Chinese are interested in. Eritrea's Bisha mine, rich in gold, copper, and zinc, is 40 percent owned by China's Import-Export Bank. Nyota Minerals is selling 75 percent of the Tulu Kapi gold mine in Ethiopia to a secret buyer; chances are about even it is a Chinese company because of China's interest in strategic minerals such as gold in the Horn of Africa. Tibet Hima Industry Co. is a conglomerate of Chinese companies involved in Uganda's Kilembe Mines Lmtd. because of China's growing demand for copper. Mineral surveys like those conducted by the Chinese government in Kenya and Sudan are likely to continue in the Horn as well.


 * Infrastructure Projects:**
 * In the next five years it is highly likely China will continue to invest heavily in infrastructure projects in the Horn of Africa.** Despite its many available natural resources, the Horn cannot capitalize on them without a proper infrastructure to distribute and manage them, and China recognized this.
 * In 2011 the CCC implemented the Entebbe-Kampala toll road with a USD 350 million concessional loan in Uganda.
 * On December 16, 2011, Ethiopia signed a $1.2 billion agreement with China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) to build the final section of a railway line that will link Addis Ababa to Djibouti.
 * In 2013, China, Ethiopia, and Sudan announced the opening of a new 27 million USD 100 km highway financed by China between the two East African countries.
 * On July 15, 2009, China and Ethiopia signed an approximate USD 2.6 billion deal for the construction of the Gibe IV and Halele Werabesa dams, which are expected to produce 2,150 MW.
 * In September 2013, Kenya signed a loan agreement with China worth 3.75 billion USD for the construction and outfitting of a rail line from Mombasa to Nairobi.
 * Sudan has a USD 3 billion deal with Sudan concerning different infrastructure projects.


 * Stability:**
 * China's infrastructure projects are highly likely positively affecting the stability of the Horn of Africa's countries.** The Horn of Africa has a very poor infrastructure in place, and recent discoveries in oil and natural gas as well as renewed interest in strategic minerals in the area have increased the need for a better infrastructure in place. The Chinese government and company honor their infrastructure commitments, boosting the political relationship between China and the Horn as well as helping the economy in each country flourish. Technology opportunities grow as each countries' infrastructure becomes more stable. The resources themselves, not the Chinese investments, are causing any instability in the region. (STILL NEED DEMOGRAPHICS AND GEOGRAPHY)

**Rose:**

 * Petroleum:**
 * Over the next five years China’s main companies of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), and China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (SINOPEC) with its subsidiary Addax will likely invest heavily in the petroleum sector in Equatorial Guinea, Chad, and most prominently Nigeria.** Nigeria is ranked twelfth in the world for oil production, tenth for crude oil, and ranked eleventh in the world for proven oil reserves. According to U.S. Energy Information Administration, Nigeria is Sub-Saharan Africa’s top liquid fuels producer, and makes up 43% of the total liquid fuels produced. CNOOC currently owns a 45% interest in the OML 130 block in Nigeria, which is a deepwater project and comprises four oilfields, namely, Akpo, Egina, Egina South and Preowei. While CNPC owns the tender of four blocks, namely OPL298, OPL471, OPL721 and OPL732. China's demand for crude oil produced in Nigeria is expected to rise tenfold to 200,000 barrels a day by 2015, Nigerian officials said, AFP reports. In 2010, China State Construction Engineering Corp (CSCEC) announced that it had signed a memorandum of understanding with Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) to finance and construct three refinery plants and a petrochemical complex. Each refinery plant is planned to have a capacity of about 250,000 bbl/day. CSCEC plans to spend 23.8 billion USD on the project as the construction head contractor of engineering, procurement, and construction


 * Natural Gas:**
 * Over the next five years China is likely to invest heavily in the natural gas sector of Cameroon and most notably Nigeria.** As of 1 Jan. 2013, Cameroon held 2% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s proved reserves of natural gas, ranking it third with Mozambique. Also Nigeria held 82%, ranking it the highest of proved natural gas reserves in Sub-Saharan Africa.


 * Mineral Mining:**
 * Over the next five years China is likely to continue to invest in the minerals of uranium, which is particularly in Niger, iron ore, especially in Cameroon, diamonds, and gold.** Niger is the fourth largest ranked uranium producer, with the Chinese company of China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) through its subsidiary China International Uranium Corporation (SinoU) and its joint venture of SOMINA already having investments in the mines at Abokorum and Azelik mine.

Over the next fiver years China will likely have infrastructure projects that coincide with their intentions and their investments in that particular country. Most of that infrastructure has gone to Nigeria in the past five years. For instance, in 2010 China State Construction Engineering Corp. (CSCEC) signed a memorandum of understanding with Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) to finance and construct three refinery plants and a petrochemical complex worth an estimated (USD-2009) $22,126,295,905. Nigeria is the top country for oil in Sub-Saharan Africa. Also, in Cameroon where China’s main focus is its iron ore, International Mining & Infrastructure Corporation is already looking at how it will develop the Nkout iron ore deposit in Cameroon as the USD 200 million takeover of Afferro Mining and is having preliminary off take deals with the Chinese as well as interest from the People’s Republic to help it develop a mine and build the rail route needed to get ore to the coast.
 * Infrastructure Projects:**


 * Stability:**

**Sean:**
The only countries with Chinese investment activities in Petroleum are Namibia and Madagascar. In Madagascar, it is unknown how many oil reserves are on the island, but the Yanchang Petrleum International Limited, formally known as the Sino Union Energy Investment Group Ltd., holds a 100% stake in two onshore oil blocks, 3113 and 2104, they are believed to hold 760 million tons in oil reserves.
 * Petroleum:**
 * It is unlikely that there will be any significant Chinese investments in Petroleum in the southern part of Africa.**

While most countries in southern Africa have no natural gas at all, the recent discovery of natural gas in the Rovuma Basin off the shores of Mozambique and Tanzania will continue to bring Chinese investments. Mozambique is one of two countries (Tanzania) in East Africa that produces natural gas. Anadarko (US based) and Eni (Italy) have been the biggest competition in the area, but recently CNPC invested $4.21 billion to gain access to the Mozambique off shore gas fields. This deal between ENI East Africa and the CNPC, gave the CNPC 28.57% of Eni's share who owns 70% of area 4 of the Rovuma Basin off the coast of Mozambique. This equates to the CPNC owning 20% of Area 4. **Exploration in other southern African countries is unlikely mainly because these countries have no proven natural gas reserves (Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Malawi) South Africa is the sole importer of natural gas from Mozambique via the Sasol pipeline.**
 * Natural Gas:**
 * It is highly likely that Chinese investments in natural gas will continue to occur over the next five years in southern Africa.**

Southern Africa is a very mineral rich region with many untapped resources. Chinese interest in these strategic minerals include investments in coal, diamonds, platinum, Gold, and Uranium throughout the region.
 * Mineral Mining**
 * It is highly likely that there will continue to be Chinese investments in strategic minerals in southern Africa, specifically in Zimbabwe, South Africa, Madagascar,Mozambique and Namibia in the next five years.**


 * Zimbabwe**
 * The Marange Diamond mine is expected to be the worlds biggest producing diamond mine. It is expect in 2013 that the mine will produce 16.9 million carats. Anjin is a joint mining firm between China's Anhui Foreign Economic Construction Company Limited and the Zimbabwe Mining Development Corporation and is now the worlds largest diamond producer. They have invested over **$400 million** in the Marange mine fields which has seen labor disputes over the past couple of years.


 * South Africa**
 * The China Development Bank (CDB) has approved a $650 million loan to develop the Bakubung platinum mine in South Africa North West province. The project is expected to be commissioned in 2018 and be fully operational by 2023. The mine is located in the Bushveld Igneous Complex (BIC) and will comprise of an underground mine with a twin shaft system, and a process plant.
 * South Africa holds 95% of Africa's coal reserves and with China being the worlds largest consumer of coal, it is also likely that there will be future investments in coal mining in the region[|.] South Africa is a mineral rich country ranging from coal, platinum, diamonds, Gold, etc. with great trading relations with China who will exploit these ties.


 * Mozambique **
 * The African Great Wall Mining Development Company has recently filed for a contract to explore heavy mineral sands in the Chinde, Inhassunge and Nicoadala districts of Zambézia province. The initial project will require an investment of $130 million and if they find strategic minerals, will also require construction of a terminal at the port of Quelimane, improvement of local roads and other social projects.
 * Mozambique is one of Africa's fastest growing countries involving foreign investment and will soon be one of the worlds leading producers in coal with recent discoveries of coking coal (used to produce steel).

**Namibia**
 * Construction of the Husab Uranium Mine which is a joint operation between Chinese company Guangdong Nuclear Power Company (CGNPC) Uranium Resources Co. Ltd. and Epangelo Mining, a Namibian government owned mining company.
 * Acquired Husab Uranium Mine owned by Swakop Uranium( Australian) for $2.1 billion.
 * Estimated cost of construction is estimated to be $130 Million and expected to be producing in late 2015
 * Husab Uranium mine estimated to hold 308 million tons of uranium ore that would take around 20 years to extract


 * Madagascar**
 * Wuhan Iron and Steel Co (WISCO), which is China's third largest steelmaker, paid $100 million for exploration permits to begin to explore the Soalala region of Madagascar in 2010.
 * The exact findings of this exploration are unknown


 * Infrastructure Projects:**
 * It is highly likely that Chinese investment in south sub Saharan African countries will continue to occur over the next five years.(Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, South Africa, Zimbabwe)**


 * Malawi**
 * Malawi and China have signed two deasl, the first being a transmission line project to be completed by Tebian Electric Apparatus Stock Co. Ltd., the second by the Gezhouba Group Company (CGGC) which will construct a Thermal plant in Neno of southern Malawi


 * Mauritius **


 * Mozambique**
 * The China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) recently took over a project worth $725 million to build the Maputo to Catemba bridge Project. This project is estimated to be completed in 2015. It is predicted that Mozambique will soon be an economic powerhouse from recent discoveries of natural gas which is likely to bring more Chinese investments toward infrastructure

New Airport construction by CSNEC- Mauritus [] []

The Maputo to Catemba bridge project (KaTembe) which is estimated to cost over $725 million dollars to complete was recently taken over by the Chinese because Portugal could no longer fund the project.The China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) is in charge of the project that is estimated to be completed in 2015. Along with this project in Mozambique's capital city, there are many other infrastructure projects involving Chinese interest abroad that will contribute to more efficient processes within Mozambique.

South Africa's infrastructure projects are likely to increase due to the ability to access many sub-Saharan countries through South Africa. China and South Africa have been trading partners for a long time and will continue to hold a great alliance. This is mainly due to the stability and advancements that South Africa posses in order to gain access to other Sub-Saharan countries through South Africa. China uses many of the Ports on the South African coast as gateways into other countries as well as supply points for their investments in other countries. A multi-billion dollar investment by China's shipping company, Chery was recently agreed upon to build a repair dock at the Richards Bay port in South Africa.

China Africa Sunlight Energy said it plans to invest as much as $2.1 billion in Zimbabwe developing coal mines and building a 2 100-megawatt plant powered by the fuel to help ease electricity shortages.


 * Stability:**

**James:**
Angola's offshore fields show the greatest potential for oil exploration and production; the country is a major world oil producer and is estimated to have over 5 billion barrels of offshore and coastal petroleum reserves. Angola's oil is the most important economic sector as oil is the bulk of it's exports and China being the biggest customer. Due to limited refining capacity within Angola, almost all Angolan oil is exported as crude; this gap is another potential for China to invest in. China is likely to explore Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the Republic of Congo and Gabon for offshore oil. Burundi oil reserves are unknown however petroleum has been prospected specifically under Lake Tanganyika but needs to be exploited. The DRC has hydrocarbon resources mainly from offshore fields and this where the most significant findings for oil were located. The Republic of Congo's economy is dependent on oil output with it dominating 85% of its exports and also shares similar offshore drilling potential. Gabon's economy is dominated by high oil production but because of failed overtures to the United States, Gabon has focused on China for investments into their oil.
 * Petroleum:**
 * It is highly likely China will invest in Angola oil exploration and production; likely to explore offshore oil in Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, **** the Republic of Congo and **** Gabon. **

Tanzania is a hotspot for natural gas explorations and has made big discoveries off its southern coast. The country invited bids for eight blocks and said it would take a stake of up to 75 percent in each of the new production sharing contracts. The bidding started on 25 October 2013 and will continue until 15 May 2014. Tanzania’s energy and minerals minister, Sospeter Muhongo said that major companies from serious countries have expressed an interest in their recent discoveries. With that, Tanzania signed a USD 1.7 billion dollar deal with China to include energy and construction deals on 24 October 2013; because the Chinese are already involved in the country and the recent gas discoveries, China is sure to be a competitive bidder for the contracts.
 * Natural Gas:**
 * It is highly likely China will invest in Tanzania’s natural gas sector; China likely to further expand gas exploration. **

Angolan minerals present great economic potential; only a small portion of its strategic minerals have been explored and exploited. It possesses the largest and most diversified mining resources of Africa. The economy of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) relies heavily on mining; the total mineral wealth is estimated at USD 24 trillion. In Gabon manganese mining and extraction are important but current minerals production are a minor part in the overall economy. Burundi has substantial nickel reserves which are among the world's most important. Due to conflict mining operations were delayed in Burundi but mining expansion has a great potential because of the minerals it possesses.
 * Mineral Mining:**
 * It is highly likely China will invest in Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo's mineral mining potential; Gabon and Burundi possess potential despite conflict and minor economic roles in mining. **

China has invested USD 7.8 billion in the DRC, 4.72 billion in Angola, 2.98 billion in Zambia, 1.97 billion in Tanzania and 1.93 billion in the Rep. of Congo; the projects encompass the construction and reconstruction of critical infrastructure in the PNGSM sectors. The infrastructure includes, but is not limited to: roads, airports, railways, power generation and supply, hospitals, schools, and government buildings. In exchange for this, the governments of these countries have pledged the Chinese access to their strategic resources. Currently, the Chinese have been following through with their stated intentions and are on track to continue to develop the much needed infrastructure the countries need.
 * Infrastructure Projects:**
 * China highly likely to continue investments in the potential PNGSM powerhouse countries (Angola, Rep. of Congo, DRC, Tanzania and Zambia) to further exploit resources in exchange for the building of necessary infrastructure projects.**


 * Stability:**

**Jared:**

 * Petroleum:**
 * It is highly likely that China will continue to invest into petroleum production and exploration in Ghana.** Ghana is the only nation in West Africa that produces petroleum. China National Offshore Oil Corporation Ltd won a 23.49 stake in the newly discovered Jubilee oil field. This stake was transferred to UNIPEC Asia Company, and an agreement was made with Ghana National Petroleum that guaranteed China 13,000 barrels of crude oil daily for the next 15 years.


 * It is unlikely that China will make any significant investments into the rest of West Africa within the next five years.** These nations, beyond Liberia, have no discovered commercially exploitable deposits of petroleum. However, the discovery of large oil deposits in any of these countries would likely lead to heavy investment by China. In 2012, large oil deposits were discovered off the coast of Liberia. Several foreign companies were granted exploratory licenses for these deposits. However, there were no Chinese companies among them. It is estimated to take 5-7 years before it is determined whether these deposits are suitable for commercial production.


 * Natural Gas:**
 * It is highly likely that Chinese companies, namely China Petroleum & Chemical Company (Sinopec), will continue to heavily invest into Ghana's natural gas industry in the next five years.** Ghana is currently the only nation in West Africa with the reserves and infrastructure necessary to produce natural gas. In 2011, Ghana secured a loan with China Development Bank for an amount of $3 billion in order to fund two natural gas processing plants near the Jubilee oil fields. These plants will be built and operated by Sinopec.

Mineral Mining:

 * In the next five years, it is highly likely that Chinese companies will continue to make significant investments into the mining projects involving iron ore, bauxite, manganese, and gold.** These minerals are key to China's interest in these nations, providing the materials necessary for China's vast production capabilities. Guinea and Mauritania both sit on large iron deposits. In Guinea, Aluminum Corporation of China Ltd invested in the Simandou iron ore project for an amount of $1.35 billion in 2010. Guinea also holds the largest bauxite reserves in the world, accounting for over 50 percent of discovered bauxite deposits. In 2012, China Power Investment made a $6 billion agreement with government of Guinea for a refinery producing 4 million tons of bauxite per year, a power plant, and a deep water port. Mauritania's iron ore deposits are set to be mined by a joint venture between China Minmetals and Societe Nationale Industrielle et Miniere (SNIM). This joint venture promises China 1.5 million tons of iron ore for export each year.

Infrastructure:

 * It is likely that both the Chinese government and Chinese companies will continue to fund infrastructure projects in West Africa.** China has funded extensive infrastructure projects in West Africa in the last five years. In Guinea, the Guinean government and China Power Investment came to a $6 billion agreement. This agreement promises Guinea two new refineries (used to produce bauxite and alumina), a deep water port, and a coal power plant.