Key+Findings

=Key Findings=

Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Key Findings

 * Over the next five years it is highly likely that Sub-Saharan Africa will receive USD 170 to 190 billion of continued Chinese**[[image:ngaafricaproject/Map of Sub-Saharan Africa.PNG align="right" caption="All Sub-Saharan Africa PNGSM and infrastructure Chinese investments in Sub-Saharan Africa. Created by the Mercyhurst NGA Africa Team"]] **investment in petroleum,** **natural gas, and strategic minerals (PNGSM).** Out of the 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa there have occurred in the past five years 96 large scale projects in PNGSM, totaling approximately USD 109 billion. 34 involve petroleum projects, totaling USD 53 billion in Chinese investment; 12 involved natural gas projects, totaling USD 15 billion in Chinese investment; and 50 involved strategic minerals projects, totaling USD 41 billion in Chinese investment. China is in great need of PNGSM because of its growing population and economy, prompting international claims of neo-colonialism and China exploiting Africa's resources.
 * China's Foreign Direct Investment into Africa has steadily increased over the last five years, having a growth rate of 64 percent from 2011 to 2012. However, this growth rate is likely to slow leading to a growth rate of between 40-60 percent over the next five years.
 * Concerning China-Africa relations, China's Ambassador to Zimbabwe Lin Lin stated, "The relationship is solidly based on friendship and cooperation and remains on the top agenda of our leadership."
 * Concerning investment in Sub-Saharan Africa, Executive Director of Institute for Democracy and Leadership in Africa Denise Kodhe stated, "As I have mentioned China has a lot of opportunities for Africa. It is a new market that has extreme interest in cooperation so it is upon Africans to exploit such opportunities.

These regions are listed in order of greatest Chinese investment in all PNGSM.


 * Western Africa:**
 * Over the next five years China is highly likely to invest 54-56 percent of total PNGSM investments, approximately USD 92 to 106 billion, to Western Africa, primarily Nigeria, Niger , Guinea , and Ghana .** Western Africa’s richness in all aspects of PNGSM makes this region a top priority for Chinese investment. Western Africa has received the majority of infrastructure and PNGSM projects by value. Overall, the region has 32 large-scale PNGSM projects totaling to approximately USD 66 billion which accounts for 62 percent of total Chinese monetary investments in Sub-Saharan Africa. USD 41 billion has been allotted to petroleum, USD 3 billion to natural gas, and USD 22 billion to strategic minerals.
 * ** Nigeria :** In 2010 China State Construction Engineering Corp. (CSCEC) signed a memorandum of understanding with Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) to finance and construct three refinery plants and a petrochemical complex worth an estimated USD 22 billion. This is the largest project financed by the Republic of China toward oil and natural gas.
 * Cornelis Zegelaar the managing director for Addax, a subsidiary of China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), stated, "Nigeria is the most important for us and the biggest producer", in reference to Nigeria's oil.
 * ** Sierra Leone :** The Tonkolili mine in central Sierra Leone has attracted large amounts of investment from Chinese companies. Shandong Iron & Steel Group and Tianjin Minerals invested into the mine owned by Africa Minerals Ltd for amounts of USD 1.5 billion and USD 990 million respectively. The Tonkolili mine sits over a deposit estimated to contain 126 million tons of iron ore.

>
 * Eastern Africa:**
 * In the next five years it is highly likely Eastern Africa will receive 29-32 percent of PNGSM Chinese investments, approximately USD 49 to 61 billion, to in Sub-Saharan Africa, specifically**
 * Mozambique, Uganda , and Zimbabwe because of their openness to investment, availability of resources, and strong bilateral ties.** Eastern Africa currently has approximately 27 percent of the PNGSM investments in Sub-Saharan Africa, totaling approximately USD 30 billion for its 41 projects. There are 10 projects involved in petroleum with USD 8 billion Chinese investments, 8 involved in natural gas with USD 9 billion Chinese investments, and 23 involved in strategic minerals with USD 14 billion Chinese investments.
 * ** Mozambique **: Recent discoveries of natural gas in the Rovuma Basin were initially estimated at 35-65 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). These estimates are now over 100 (Tcf) with 75-80 (Tcf) being in Area 4 alone. The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) invested USD 4.21 billion to gain access to 20 percent of Area 4 in Mozambique's off shore gas fields. This deal between ENI East Africa and the CNPC, gave the CNPC 28.57 percent of Eni's share who owns 70 percent of area 4 of the Rovuma Basin.
 * ** Uganda **: USD 2.175 billion Chinese investments in PNGSM in Uganda have and will continue to occur, prompting further Chinese investment over the next five years. China's National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is starting the development of the Kingfisher Field in Lake Albert basin for USD 2 billion. Uganda's discovered oil reserves in 2006 are fourth largest reserves in Sub-Saharan Africa, and CNOOC quickly won the rights to start developing in Kingfisher Field in Lake Albert, which contains 3.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent and 1.2 billion barrels of recoverable confirmed oil. Associated natural gas is stated to be available in Lake Albert as well.
 * ** Zimbabwe :** The Marange Diamond mine is the world's largest producing diamond mine. According to projections by the Zimbabwe Mining Development Corp.  the mine will produce 16.9 million carats in 2013. Anjin is a joint mining firm between China's Anhui Foreign Economic Construction Company Limited and the Zimbabwe Mining Development Corporation have invested over USD 400 million in the Marange Diamond Mines.


 * Central Africa:**
 * Over the next five years China is highly likely to invest 7 percent of total PNGSM investments, approximately USD 12 to 13 billion, to Central Africa, primarily Angola, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon .** Central Africa’s richness in all aspects of PNGSM makes this region a top priority for Chinese investment. Overall, the region has 19 large-scale PNGSM projects totaling to approximately USD 7.3 billion which accounts for 6.5 percent of total Chinese monetary investments in Sub-Saharan Africa. There are 10 petroleum based projects totaling USD 5 billion, 2 natural gas projects totaling USD 1 billion and 7 strategic mineral projects totaling 1.5 billion.
 * ** Angola :** In 2009 Angola secured a total of USD 2.5 billion from China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC), Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Corp. and China's Export Import Bank for petroleum based projects.
 * ** Gabon :** In 2008 China's National Machinery and Equipment Import/Export Company (CMEC) signed an agreement with the Gabonese government; it guarantees 90 percent of the mineral wealth to China. In exchange for the minerals China will manage infrastructure investment in Belinga where iron ore exists. There have been 3 strategic mineral projects totaling USD 904 million.

Southern Africa
=Sub-Saharan Africa Resources Key Findings=
 * It is likely that China will continue to invest 5 percent of total PNGSM investments, approximately USD 9 to 10 billion, in Southern Africa over the next five years, primarily in Namibia and South Africa .** Southern Africa received around 5 percent of Chinese PNGSM investments totaling around USD 3 billion.
 * ** Namibia **: It is highly likely that China investment in Namibia will continue within their mining and petroleum sectors.The recent investment of USD 2.1 billion by the Gungdong Nuclear Power Company (CGNPC) and Epangelo Mining, a Namibian government owned mining company to acquire the Husab Uranium Mine recently owned by Swakop (Australian) is a major investment within Namibia.
 * ** South Africa **
 * The China Development Bank (CDB) has approved a USD 650 million loan to develop the Bakubung platinum mine in South Africa North West province. The project is expected to be commissioned in 2018 and be fully operational by 2023. The mine is located in the Bushveld Igneous Complex (BIC) and will comprise of an underground mine with a twin shaft system, and a process plant.
 * South Africa holds 95 percent of Africa's coal reserves and with China being the worlds largest consumer of coal, it is also likely that there will be future investments in coal mining in the region[|.] South Africa is a mineral rich country ranging from coal, platinum, diamonds, gold, etc. with great trading relations with China who will exploit these ties.

Petroleum

 * Overall, it is likely that Chinese investments in petroleum will increase to USD 61-65 billion over the next five years**. Out of 96 total Chinese investments in PNGSM 35 of them were petroleum investments totaling around USD 58 billion.**It is highly likely that Nigeria will continue to receive majority of petroleum investments over the next five years: Nigeria had a total of 9** **investments totaling around USD 38 billion or 65 percent of total petroleum investments.**


 * ** Nigeria :** China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) currently owns a 45 percent interest in the OML 130 block in Nigeria, which is a deepwater project and comprises four oilfields, namely, Akpo, Egina, Egina South and Preowei. While CNPC owns the tender of four blocks, namely OPL298, OPL471, OPL721 and OPL732. In 2010, China State Construction Engineering Corp (CSCEC) announced that it had signed a memorandum of understanding with Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) to finance 22 billion USD and construct three refinery plants and a petrochemical complex. Each refinery plant is planned to have a capacity of about 250,000 bbl/day. According to AFP reports, China's demand for crude oil produced in Nigeria is expected to rise tenfold to 200,000 barrels a day by 2015.
 * ** Angola :** In June of 2013 China’s National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) paid USD 1.52 billion to purchase a 10 percent stake in Block-31; this field is expected to have 533 million barrels of reserves and is estimated to add 14,600 barrels of oil per day for CNPC. In 2009 CNOOC bought a 20 percent stake in Block-32 (1,965 square mile) for USD 1.3 billion.
 * ** Uganda : ** CNOOC is starting the development of the Kingfisher Field in Lake Albert basin for USD 2 billion. Uganda's discovered oil reserves in 2006 are fourth largest reserves in Sub-Saharan Africa, and CNOOC quickly won the rights to start developing in Kingfisher Field in Lake Albert, which contains 3.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent and 1.2 billion barrels of recoverable confirmed oil.


 * The countries listed above have large associated natural gas projects coinciding with their oil projects

Natural Gas

 * Overall, it is likely that Chinese investment in natural gas will increase to USD 15-20 billion over the next five years.** Out of the 96 Chinese investments in PNGSM totaling USB 113 billion, 12 of them involved investments in natural gas totaling USD 15 billion. ** It is highly likely that recent discoveries in the Rovuma Basin off the shores of Mozambique and Tanzania will see the most Chinese investments in natural gas over the next five years. ** In 2006 ** Mozambique ** and ** Tanzania ** signed a joint agreement for managing the resources in this region.


 * ** Mozambique ** **:** **Refer To Eastern Africa Key Findings.** The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) invested USD 4.21 billion to gain access to 20 percent of Area 4 in Mozambique's off shore gas fields.
 * ** Tanzania ** **:** Tanzania’s natural gas reserves are expected to rise 200 trillion cubic feet in the next two years from previous estimates of 43.1 trillion cubic feet. In September 2012, China’s EXIM Bank signed a loan agreement for USD 1.2 billion for a 330 mile natural gas pipeline from the south east of the country to the capital of Dar es Salaam. Tanzania invited bids for eight blocks and said it would take a stake of up to 75 percent in each of the new production sharing contracts. The bidding started on 25 October 2013 and will continue until 15 May 2014.

Strategic Minerals

 * Over the next five years it is likely that total Chinese strategic mineral investments in Sub-Saharan will be approximately USD 45-50 billion; specifically in iron ore and copper projects in Sierra Leone, Guinea , Tanzania , Zambia , the DRC and Uganda .** Overall, China has invested approximately USD 41 billion in 50 strategic mineral projects. Of those, there are 3 projects in ** Guinea ** totaling USD 10.7 billion, 4 projects in ** Zimbabwe ** totaling USD 5.5 billion and 8 projects in ** Zambia ** totaling USD 5 billion. China has also made notable investments into other strategic minerals such as diamonds, gold, manganese, uranium, coltan, bauxite, coal and platinum.
 * ** Sierra Leone :** The Tonkolili mine in central Sierra Leone has attracted large amounts of investment from Chinese companies. Shandong Iron & Steel Group and Tianjin Minerals invested into the mine owned by Africa Minerals Ltd for amounts of USD 1.5 billion and USD 990 million respectively. The Tonkolili mine sits over a deposit estimated to contain 126 million tons of iron ore.
 * ** Tanzania ** **:** The Liganga iron ore project in the Ludewa district in the Njombe region received USD 3 billion from  the Chinese Sichuan Hongda Group (SHG). The project is expected to last 70 years through which a total of 219 million tonnes of iron ore will be mined, generating the country USD 1.7 billion per annum.
 * ** Zambia :** Both Zambia and the DRC share in the Copperbelt region; specifically to Zambia the Chinese have heavy investments in the mineral. In 2011, Jinchuan Group Company Ltd purchased South Africa's Metorex for USD 1.2 billion in order to gain access to their 85 percent stake in the Chibuluma copper mine in northern Zambia. There are 35 million tons of copper reserves and the Chinese have invested through the purchase of mines, loans, grants, and explorations projects at approximately 2 billion dollars.

Infrastructure Projects
//**(All figures are approximations)**//
 * In the next five years it is highly likely China will continue to invest heavily in infrastructure projects in Sub-Saharan Africa that correspond with their investments in petroleum, natural gas, and strategic minerals (PNGSM), specifically in the countries of Ethiopia, Guinea , Mozambique , Nigeria , and the Democratic Republic of Congo . **Overall China has invested USD 39 billion USD worth of infrastructure projects towards oil and petroleum, USD 7.6 billion towards natural gas, and USD 31 billion towards strategic minerals. There are 15 projects in combination with petroleum and oil, 6 with natural gas, and 29 with strategic minerals. Sub-Saharan Africa is rich with natural resources, but is unable to fully capitalize on them without proper infrastructures to distribute and manage them. The following infrastructure projects are prime examples of how Chinese infrastructure projects are correspond with PNGSM investments in that country:

> This agreement promises Guinea two new refineries (used to produce bauxite and alumina), a deep water port, and a coal power plant.
 * ** Ethiopia :** On December 16, 2011, Ethiopia signed a USD 1.2 billion agreement with China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) to build the final section of a railway line that will link Addis Ababa to Djibouti. In 2013, China, Ethiopia, and Sudan announced the opening of a new USD 27 million 100 km highway financed by China between the two East African countries.
 * ** Guinea :** In Guinea, the Guinean government and China Power Investment came to a USD 6 billion agreement. [[image:Infrastructure key finding chart.png align="right"]]
 * ** Mozambique :** The African Great Wall Mining Development Company has recently filed for a contract to explore heavy mineral sands in the Chinde, Inhassunge and Nicoadala districts of Zambézia province. The initial project will require an investment of USD 130 million and if they find strategic minerals, will also require construction of a terminal at the port of Quelimane, improvement of local roads and other social projects
 * ** Nigeria :** In 2010 China State Construction Engineering Corp. (CSCEC) signed a memorandum of understanding with Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) to finance and construct three refinery plants and a petrochemical complex worth an estimated USD 22 billion. Nigeria is the top country for oil in Sub-Saharan Africa and shows how this infrastructure is corresponding to PNGSM interest.
 * ** Democratic Republic of Congo : **In September of 2007, China and the DRC signed an agreement for a USD 9 billion loan deal from China's EXIM bank but was reduced to USD 6 billion in October 2009 because of IMF concerns over the DRC's national debt. USD 3 billion will be spent on infrastructure, including 2,000 miles of railway between Sakania and Matadi, a 2,000-mile road linking Kisanganiand and Kasumbalesa, a motorway between Lubumbashi and Kasumbalesa, 31 hospitals, 145 health centers, two international-standard universities, and 5,000 government housing units. In addition to the infrastructure projects, China has also pledged to develop mines in the Mashamba basin, the Dima basin, the Dik Colline D syncline, and Kolwezi. In exchange Gécamines, the Congolese state copper company would concede deposits containing up to 10.6 million tons of copper. This deal, called the Sicomines agreement started in 2008 and is still ongoing.


 * It is highly likely that Chinese infrastructure projects in Sub-Saharan Africa are used to pursue further PNGSM investments.** This is in accordance with China emphasizing that any bilateral relationship has to be mutually beneficial, and China’s investment in Africa does pay itself back in multiple ways economically: development and exploitation of Africa’s natural resources, access to local market, employment opportunities for Chinese labors and service contracts for Chinese companies on infrastructure projects that China funds. Out of the total of 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, 43 have corresponding Chinese infrastructure projects in them. Overall, there are an estimated 280 infrastructure projects in the region. The World Bank reports that Africa suffers infrastructural deficiency of at least USD 93 billion per year.China realizes that an efficient way of extracting resources from countries are to fund this much needed infrastructure projects. The following infrastructure projects are prime examples of how Chinese infrastructure projects are used to pursue further investments in PNGSM in that country:
 * ** Chad :** In Koudalwa village near the CNPC and the Chadian government's jointly constructed N'Djamena refinery, the locals were becoming frustrated over high oil prices. The refinery has temporarily been suspended various times for this issue. To help the relations between the local Chadians and China, CNPC has constructed a new school and several water pumps to Koudalwa. This illustrates how China is using simple infrastructure projects to improve their reputation with Chad, that way they can keep pursuing Chadian oil.
 * ** Equatorial Guinea :** In 2006, China’s Export Import Bank awarded the country a credit line of USD 2 billion to complete a series of infrastructure projects, explicitly to improve and provide electricity to the Bata Harbor. In exchange, Unipec, the trading arm of Sinopec, received a contract for the delivery of 15,000 barrels per day of crude oil from the Zafiro field for five years.

Stability

 * In the next five years, it is likely PNGSM corresponding Chinese infrastructure investments will positively affect stability in Sub-Saharan Africa.** In the past five years, out of the 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, ** Ghana, Guinea , Liberia , Niger **, and ** Nigeria ** Chinese corresponding infrastructure investments affected stability. ** Nigeria , Niger , Guinea **, and ** Ghana ** Chinese corresponding PNGSM infrastructure projects positively affected stability of these countries, while Chinese corresponding PNGSM infrastructure projects negatively affected ** Liberia's ** stability. Economic and demographic aspects, respectively, influenced stability the most by these corresponding PNGSM infrastructure projects.
 * **Economic:** In 2008,China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) signed a USD 5 billion joint-venture agreement with the Nigerien government for construction of a 20,000 barrels per day refinery near Zinder, which became operational in Nov. 2011. In 2012, CNPC agreed to cut Niger's interest rate for the loan used to construct the refinery. Reuters reports Niger's economic growth will hit 7.5 percent in 2014 due to improvements on oil production and a decrease in interest payments on debt for its share of the country's Zinder oil refinery.
 * **Demographic**** : ** In ** Liberia **, China Union, owner of the Bong iron mines, have yet to fulfill agreed upon social obligations to the citizens of the Bong regions in regards to projects such as hospitals and schools. This has lead to a poor reputation of China in the region.