Kenya+Natural+Gas

=Kenya's Location In The Same Geological Belt As Tanzania And Mozambique As Well As Recent Oil Discoveries Make It Highly Likely For Chinese Investors to Invest In Kenyan Natural Gas Over The Next Five Years=

Executive Summary:
Tanzania and Mozambique recently have had large discoveries of natural gas, and Kenya's associated position in the same geological belt, leads many to believe that large amounts of natural gas exist in Kenya in on and offshore reserves. Chinese natural gas investors are highly likely to not ignore Kenya's recent discovery of oil reserves, many of which are believed to hold associated natural gas as well. With Kenya's oil discovery being more recent presents more opportunities for Chinese investors over the next five years, such as a 700-800 MW natural gas-fired plant near Mombasa that is currently open for investment. Disputes over energy resources between rebels and neighboring Somalia are the only cause for concern for Chinese investors.

Discussion:
Tanzania's and Mozambique's natural gas discovery has all of Eastern Africa beginning exploration projects to see if they have large reserves as well. Kenya lies in the same geological belt as Tanzania and Mozambique according to aerial seismic surveys showing deposits of hydrocarbons, increasing the likelihood Kenya has large reserves. Exploration off the coast of Kenya has yielded results in September 2010 and are estimated to be larger than previously expected. The interest is apparent; the Energy and Petroleum Ministry received 62 applications from local and international firms in the generation of coal and liquified natural gas projects. The Energy and Petroleum Ministry is currently seeking investors specifically to developed a 700-800MW natural gas-fired plant near the Mombasa port. The opportunities to invest in Kenyan natural gas will only grow as estimates are likely to increase over the next five years.

**Analytic Confidence: **
Analytic confidence for this assessment is moderate. Source reliability ranges from medium to high. There is no conflict between sources. The analyst had low expertise, worked alone but collaborated with a team, and did not use structured analytic methods. The subject is moderately complex and the deadline was moderately difficult to meet.


 * Analyst**: David Bott