Ethiopia+Strategic+Minerals

=Despite Ethiopia's Revocation Of Mineral Licenses In 2012, It Is Likely Chinese Investors Will Invest In Ethiopia's Gold, Potash, And Tantalum Over The Next Five Years= ==Executive Summary:== Ethiopia's strategic location near the Indian ocean and large reserves of gold, potash, and tantalum will likely be too much to resist for Chinese strategic mineral investors. China is the world's largest potash consumer, and Ethiopia is estimated to contain the third largest potash reserves after Canada and Russia. Ethiopia also is estimated to have gold resources of 5000 tons, which Ethiopia is eager to capitalize on. China also received 80 percent of the 220 metric tons of tantalite from the Kenticha mine in Ethiopia, and Ethiopia wishes to convince Chinese investors to buy a stake in the tantalum production company.

===Discussion:=== Ethiopia has rich strategic minerals such as gold, platinum, copper, tantalite, and potash. China is a large consumer of these minerals and although China has yet to exploit Ethiopia's strategic mineral resources, partly because of Ethiopia's Ministry of Mines' revocation of petroleum and mineral licenses in 2012. Chinese investors in strategic minerals likely will look at Ethiopia's estimated third largest in the world potash reserves. Ethiopian potash is cheap to produce and China is the world's largest consumer, making Ethiopian potash reserves a likely avenue for China to meet its high demand for potash.

Ethiopia has also attempted to garner support for its tantalite; 80 percent of the 220 metric tons of tantalite mined at the Kenticha mine over 12 months shipped to China, making it a likely reserve China can try and exploit.

**Analytic Confidence: **
Analytic confidence for this assessment is moderate. Source reliability ranges from medium to high. There is no conflict between sources. The analyst had low expertise, worked alone but collaborated with a team, and did not use structured analytic methods. The subject is moderately complex and the deadline was moderately difficult to meet.


 * Analyst**: David Bott