Burundi+PNGSM

Executive Summary:
It is unlikely for Chinese Investments in PNGSM in Burundi to occur over the next five years. It is highly likely China will not start petroleum investments in Burundi. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Burundi has zero total oil and crude oil production. There have been no petroleum investments from China in the past five years; however Lake Tanganyika has been prospected but has yet to be exploited. Oil reserves are unknown and if oil were to be discovered, it is likely it would take beyond the next five years to discover and properly exploit. It is virtually certain China will not start investments in Burundi’s natural gas sector. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration Burundi does not produce any natural gas. According to IHS Global Insight, there are no known natural gas reserves in Burundi. Due to these factors, it is virtually certain China will not invest in the natural gas sector of Burundi. China is unlikely to start mineral investments in Burundi in the next five years. According to IHS Global Insight, Burundi has substantial nickel reserves and that deposits of vanadium and uranium are being surveyed however there is no further open source information available . Burundi is one the world's poorest countries; it is landlocked, has a poor legal system, a lack of economic freedom, a lack of access to education, proliferation of AIDS/HIV and having just come from a civil war in the mid 1990s. Australian company Argosy Minerals owns 100% of the Musongati Nickel Project in Burundi through its subsidiary, Andover Resources NL and they have negotiated a comprehensive Mining Convention with the Burundian government . Overall, these factors hinder China's investment in the mineral sector of Burundi.

** Analytic Confidence: **
Analytic confidence is high. Source reliability ranges from medium to high. There is no conflict between sources. The analyst had low expertise on the subject, worked alone while also collaborating with a group, and did not use a structured analytic method. The subject is moderately complex and the deadline was moderately easy to meet.


 * Analyst: ** James Gibson